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Editorial

2008 Presidential Election: The 'spoiler effect' could be crucial

Dhivehi Observer, 26 November 2007

An obscure election phenomenon known as the spoiler effect could make or break the winning chances for the main contenders in the 2008 Presidential Election. In a multi-candidate election the spoiler effect favors the candidate who is most different from others. In this election, the unique candidate would obviously be Gayyoom, since he will be the only dictator in the fray. Thus, in order to prevent Gayyoom from taking advantage of the phenomenon and win the election, MDP must develop strategy to minimize the spoiler effect.

In election theory, the spoiler effect is a term used to describe the effect a candidate can have on a close election, in which their candidacy results in the election being won by a candidate dissimilar to them, rather than a candidate similar to them. This happens because similar candidates eat into each other's vote banks, while the unique candidate remains unaffected. For instance, in the forthcoming elections, where MDP and Gayyoom are likely to be the main contenders, any third candidate in the fray is more likely eat into MDP votes, rather than Gayyoom's.

One often cited example of the spoiler effect at work was the 2000 U.S. Presidential election. In that election, George W. Bush and Al Gore had a very close election in many states, with neither candidate winning a majority of the votes. In Florida, the final certified vote totals show Bush won just 537 more votes than Gore, thus winning the state and the presidency. Many Gore supporters believed that most of the 97,421 votes that went to Ralph Nader in that state would have likely been votes for Gore had Nader not been in the election. They contend that Nader's candidacy "spoiled" the election for Gore by taking away enough votes from Gore in Florida and many other states (in particular, New Hampshire being the allegation most statistically supportable) only to allow Bush to win. Some observers began to refer to the spoiler effect as the Nader effect after the 2000 election.

A similar effect was observed in 1987, when Roh Tae-woo won the South Korean presidential election with just under 36% of the popular vote after his two main rivals split the vote.

Theoretically, MDP could avoid the spoiler effect by uniting all opposition parties under its fold. In practice this is not possible because even if MDP achieves the impossible in bringing Adhaalath, IDP, SDP and others together, Gayyoom could still put up a 'dummy' third candidate to bring out the spoiler effect.

A more promising method to reduce the spoiler effect is for MDP itself to project itself as a unique party different from others. There are two ways of doing this. One is to stop stressing this election as an anti-Gayoom campaign (all other parties will also have this goal) and instead stress the pro-MDP aspect. The second way is to develop an election manifesto that is strikingly different from those of others, and to stress the differences in the election campaign.

With the right strategy, MDP could easily win the election. But time is ticking. The party must soon select its Presidential candidate to give him/her enough time for image building.

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